Revisiting Optimistic Predictions for the Occupation of Iraq

Here are some excerpts from a March 29, 2003 article in the Washington Post, written just as the US-led invasion of Iraq began.

Cheney said, "I think things have gotten so bad inside Iraq, from the standpoint of the Iraqi people, my belief is we will, in fact, be greeted as liberators." It was then he predicted that the regular Iraqi soldiers would not "put up such a struggle," and that even "significant elements of the Republican Guard . . . are likely to step aside." Asked if Americans are prepared for a "long, costly and bloody battle," Cheney replied: "Well, I don't think it's likely to unfold that way. . . . The read we get on the people of Iraq is there is no question but what they want to the get rid of Saddam Hussein, and they will welcome as liberators the United States when we come to do that." Cheney has spoken that way for months.

In September 2002, he said that "you always plan for the worst," but he also said, "I don't think it would be that tough a fight; that is, I don't think there's any question that we would prevail." In a speech in August, he cited a scholar's view that "the streets in Basra and Baghdad are sure to erupt in joy in the same way the throngs in Kabul greeted the Americans."

In an interview on PBS, Perle said he "would be surprised if we need anything like" 200,000 troops, and predicted only 10 percent of Hussein's troops would be loyal. Though warning of "contingencies," he predicted an internal revolt against Hussein, adding: "It will be quicker and easier than many people think. He is far weaker than many people realize."

I'm glad my mistakes aren't this public. I've certainly made my share of mistakes. I'm fortunate that my job doesn't require me to go on record selling people on the outcome of my plans and that my job does not involve life-and-death decisions.

I suspect the architects of the invasion and occupation of Iraq believed their own propaganda. Their training was in military, and they really wanted to believe that war could solve problems like Iraq and the sanctions; just as I would like to believe that information technology will bring about world piece by acting as a force for equality and democracy like the printing press, only more so.

I certainly hope the Vietnam syndrome (i.e. reluctance to get involved in military conflicts) is back for good. Reluctance to getting involved in wars goes back to the founders of the US. I hope what hawks called the Vietnam syndrome will from now on be recognized as basic American values.